Below, EPI economists offer their initial insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 311,000 jobs added in February and wage growth continuing to decelerate.
From EPI senior economist, Elise Gould (@eliselgould):
Read the full Twitter thread here.
The labor market continues strong in February 2023, payroll jobs up 311,000. Prime-age EPOPs back to pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment rate up along with labor force participation.
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) March 10, 2023
The gains in leisure and hospitality continue to chip away at the leisure and hospitality shortfall since millions of jobs were lost in the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality is now down 410,000 jobs since February 2020. pic.twitter.com/oRYBzyXpqS
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) March 10, 2023
While the private sector experienced a strong bounce back due to large policy interventions, the public sector–particularly state and local government jobs–continues to fall behind. Private-sector employment is 2.6% above pre-pandemic levels while state and local is down 2.0%. pic.twitter.com/xrgMQ5ycX5
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) March 10, 2023
From EPI president, Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz):
Read the full Twitter thread here.
February’s annualized monthly wage growth was 2.9%, a very non-inflationary number. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, BY THIS MEASURE THE FED’S WORK IS DONE. 1/
This chart shows annualized monthly wage growth. The deceleration over the last year is clear. pic.twitter.com/WjwjUC5TuY
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) March 10, 2023
If the Fed is determined to restore the 2% inflation that (roughly) prevailed before the covid recession, the best-case scenario is exactly what we’re seeing—nominal wage growth slowing but inflation slowing even faster. 3/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) March 10, 2023
One disturbing note, though. While state and local govt jobs increased by 39,000 in February, there is still a big gap—they are down 409,000 since Feb ‘20, with two-thirds of that, 260,000, in education. 6/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) March 10, 2023
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