Democratic midterm prospects are bad not only because of inflation, a slowing economy, rampant crime, the southern border crisis and culture clashes. The party also has to contend with President Biden’s lousy approval numbers, a Republican generic ballot advantage, and a growing sense that Mr. Biden is weak, incompetent and too old.
Then there are voter-registration trends in battleground states. Take Florida. In 2016, Democrats held a registration edge of 330,428 over Republicans but Donald Trump still won, as did Sen. Marco Rubio. The Democratic advantage dwindled to 257,175 in 2018 and to 97,215 in 2020. Today, there are 175,911 more Republicans than Democrats—the first time in Florida history the GOP has led in registrations.