Happy Fourth. Here’s a good way to celebrate: Help out Betty Jo, who helped take care of Yves’s mother. As Yves wrote:
Please help. She’s become important to me. I hate seeing someone who has no malice and is industrious and conscientious wind up in such a desperate state due to how our medical system places profit over people. Go to GoFundMe, or click on this button:
Secrets of the Moon’s Permanent Shadows Are Coming to Light Wired. “Water ice,” pronounced wooder ice.
Fourth of July
The Limits to Growth: Ecosocialism or Barbarism Monthly Review
Evaluation of a Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Approach to Estimate the Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and the Detection of Viral Variants in Disparate Oregon Communities at City and Neighborhood Scales Environmental Health Perspectives. From the Abstract: “The greater reliability of wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations over clinically reported case counts was likely due to systematic biases that affect reported case counts, including variations in access to testing and underreporting of asymptomatic cases. With these advantages, combined with scalability and low costs, wastewater-based epidemiology can be a key component in public health surveillance of COVID-19 and other communicable infections.” Meanwhile, here is how a serious country (Ireland) does wastewater reporting:
People infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 disease, can shed the virus in their stool, which can then be detected in wastewater. This means that wastewater surveillance can be used to monitor the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the population. pic.twitter.com/FcHgfesBFu
— HSE Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) (@hpscireland) July 1, 2022
There’s no variant coverage, but the reporting covers the entire country and is published weekly, reliably (unlike CDC).
Monitoring occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 in school populations: A wastewater-based approach PLOS One. From the text: “Sixteen schools (10 primary, 5 secondary and 1 post-16 and further education for a total of 17 sites) in England took part in the School wasTEwater-based epidemiological suRveillance systeM for the rapid identification of COVID-19 outbreaks (TERM) study… [T]he lead/lag analysis between the weekly positivity rates in schools and community cases shows a maximum correlation between the two-time series when school data are lagged by two weeks.”
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Exacerbation of COVID-19 mortality by the fragmented United States healthcare system: A retrospective observational study The Lancet. From the Abstract: “Our study demonstrates that a significant share of COVID-19 mortality in the United States, and much of the excess mortality in the United States compared with other countries, is due to our reliance on a system of market-driven healthcare.” Rule #2.
Universal healthcare as pandemic preparedness: The lives and costs that could have been saved during the COVID-19 pandemic PNAS. From the Abtract: “The fragmented and inefficient healthcare system in the United States leads to many preventable deaths and unnecessary costs every year. Universal healthcare could have alleviated the mortality caused by a confluence of negative COVID-related factors. Incorporating the demography of the uninsured with age-specific COVID-19 and nonpandemic mortality, we estimated that a single-payer universal healthcare system would have saved 212,000 lives in 2020 alone. We also calculated that US$105.6 billion of medical expenses associated with COVID-19 hospitalization could have been averted by a Medicare for All system.” But on the bright side, think of the culling!
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Serious Adverse Events of Special Interest Following mRNA Vaccination in Randomized Trials (preprint) SSRN (norm de plume). Quoting a slab of the Abstract:
Methods. Secondary analysis of serious adverse events reported in the placebo-controlled, phase III randomized clinical trials of Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines (NCT04368728 and NCT04470427), focusing analysis on potential adverse events of special interest identified by the Brighton Collaboration.
Results. Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events of special interest, with an absolute risk increase of 10.1 and 15.1 per 10,000 vaccinated over placebo baselines of 17.6 and 42.2 (95% CI -0.4 to 20.6 and -3.6 to 33.8), respectively. Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an absolute risk increase of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 (95% CI 2.1 to 22.9). The excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest surpassed the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group in both Pfizer and Moderna trials (2.3 and 6.4 per 10,000 participants, respectively).
Discussion. The excess risk of serious adverse events found in our study points to the need for formal harm-benefit analyses, particularly those that are stratified according to risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes such as hospitalization or death.
Funding. This study had no funding support.
From June, still germane. The paper, needless to say, generated some controversy. Members of the Brain Trust may wish to comment.
Chinese state airlines to buy almost 300 Airbus jets Reuters. Oof.
“Clearly, China has become a target of NATO” What China Reads
Why inland regions hold key to China’s continued ‘common prosperity’ push South China Morning Post
China calls on Myanmar junta to hold talks with opponents Guardian. Depends on whether “opponents” means the NUG, Aung San Suu Kyi, or both.
Walking the World: Hanoi (part 1) Chris Arnade, Walking the World
New Not-So-Cold Cold War
Lysychansk Falls, Russia Takes Control of All Lugansk Region as Ukrainian Resistance Collapses (video) Alexander Mercouris. Well worth a listen. Grab a cup of coffee, because it takes an hour. Mercouris also mentions the following two articles, both worth a read–
Avoiding a Russian Quagmire, the Improbable Ukrainian Peace, and the Risk of Direct Russo-NATO War Gordon Hahn, Russian and Eurasian Politics. I don’t know why the only creative thinking about Ukraine is being done by conservatives, while all left-liberals do is add Urkaine flags to their “In This House” signs, but here we are.
How to Lose Big in Ukraine National Review
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Ill Prepared for Combat, Volunteers Die in Battles Far From Home NYT. Perhaps sending more weapons — hear me out — won’t solve the problem?
Germany’s Union Head Warns of Collapse of Entire Industries Bloomberg. Worth it, though! Right?
EU Seeks Ways to Help Ukraine Rebuild Amid Gas-Cut Fallout Bloomberg. Fantasy.
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Anatomy of a Coup: How CIA Front Laid Foundations for Ukraine War Kit Klarenberg, Kit’s Newsletter
Biden moves on abortion haven’t quieted progressive anger The Hill. Weak:
WATCH: Health and Human Services Sec. Xavier Becerra says there’s not a lot the Biden administration can do for abortion rights. @SecBecerra: “Unless we’re all going to say the word of the Supreme Court will no longer have value, we have to heed the word of the Supreme Court.” pic.twitter.com/yfbp6j7JIO
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) July 3, 2022
Becerra is wrong.
Democrats en déshabillé
Once people see what the Democratic Party really is, it can never be unseen. https://t.co/E2G6ZSlIqW
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 2, 2022
Debacle -> Fundraising -> Election -> Betrayal -> Debacle1 …. Debaclen
Will Biden defend his own office from this court? Carl Beijer. West Virginia v. the Environmental Protection Agency seen as a return to the Lochner era. “Recall that Lochner vs. New York was a case in which the court decided that it was unconstitutional for legislatures to set basic limits to the workday. Today, we are seeing the exact same economic forces at work.” Worth clicking through the free trial stuff for a read.
Police State Watch
From what I’ve been told by local Akron officials, the body camera footage of Jayland Walker’s murder, which is set to come out tomorrow, is extremely disturbing.
The shot at him 90 times, hitting him 60–including 12 times in the face.
Then they handcuffed his lifeless body. 1/
— Nina Turner (@ninaturner) July 3, 2022
Basel Committee publishes second consultation document on the prudential treatment of banks’ cryptoasset exposures Bank of International Settlements. They’re still working on a standard: “Unbacked cryptoassets and stablecoins with ineffective stabilisation mechanisms continue to be subject to a conservative prudential treatment, with a new limit proposed on gross exposures.” One would hope so.
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Assange lodges UK appeal against US extradition International Business Times
Containers: Market Questions Peak Season Scale As Consumer Sentiment Drops Hellenic Shipping News
Black Injustice Tipping Point
Imperial Collapse Watch
We live in the stupidest timeline:
— TG (@TG22110) June 27, 2022
OK, OK, I plead guilty to classism and regionalism, and stupid can be fun. But stupid is stupid. (Just to be clear: I see this clip as a metaphor for elite behavior in everything, and for America in general.)
Gut the comms department:
This interview with Mick Lynch is the clearest 30 minutes I’ve ever heard from a trade unionist.
This is a union with *2 people* on its comms. Organised workers, with a clear set of demands and sound leadership, always trump the ad agencies & pundits.https://t.co/hSXH8VYnYc
— Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) July 2, 2022
The Futility of Utility Napkin Math. From April, still germane. “Why couldn’t I behave like a rational, utility-maximizing individual?”
Antidote du jour (via):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.